Juventude 3-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Jul 2024

Juventude
3-0 HT 2-0
Gremio
📅07/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Juventude vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.65
6+ Goals
11%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.9
X/1
16%
5.07
X/2
17%
5.54
X/X
10%
3.94
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
13%
4.2
2/X
7%
14.0
Value flag · 1/X at 13.9 — our 11% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Juventude v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventude EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.37/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.46
-21% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
22.5 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Juventude vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventude
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gremio
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.69 xG 1.24
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
348 Passes 434
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.02.2023 Juventude Juventude 2-3 HT 0-3 Gremio Gremio BRG1
14.02.2022 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BRG1
18.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-2 HT 2-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
01.07.2021 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
26.03.2021 Juventude Juventude 2-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BRG1
06.11.2020 Juventude Juventude 0-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK

Juventude 3-0 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventude
3-0
AWAY Gremio
1.66 xG 0.77
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
371 Passes 392
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Juventude vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude swept aside Gremio 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Juventude made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Juventude had 49% of the ball to Gremio's 51%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.66 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Juventude and 1.50 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Juventude vs Gremio?

Juventude 3-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventude vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Juventude win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Juventude 36%, draw 28%, Gremio 36%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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