Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals
Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-1
Montpellier
FR1
2-0
HT 1-0
Saint-Etienne
FR1
1-2
HT 1-1
Saint-Etienne
FR1
0-1
HT 0-1
Montpellier
FR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Saint-Etienne
FR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Montpellier
FR1
Saint-Etienne 1-0 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics
Saint-Etienne squeezed past Montpellier 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Saint-Etienne as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Saint-Etienne had 32% of the ball to Montpellier's 68%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.48 to 0.95.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.00 for Montpellier.
What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier?
Saint-Etienne 1-0 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier?
Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 44%, draw 28%, Montpellier 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saint-Etienne), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.