Saint-Etienne 1-0 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.3
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
18%
5.34
X/2
10%
6.44
X/X
15%
4.62
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
12%
4.31
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +22%
1.51/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.50
-7% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
22.0 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Montpellier
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 0.86
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
381 Passes 269
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2022 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 3-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
12.09.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 2-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
02.05.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 1-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
01.11.2020 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
09.02.2020 Montpellier Montpellier 1-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
24.11.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
1-0
AWAY Montpellier
1.48 xG 0.95
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 11
194 Passes 470
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne squeezed past Montpellier 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Saint-Etienne as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 32% of the ball to Montpellier's 68%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.48 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.00 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier?

Saint-Etienne 1-0 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 44%, draw 28%, Montpellier 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saint-Etienne), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✓ Under 2.5
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