Arsenal Tula 1-2 Tyumen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.5pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Tyumen EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
0.93/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.60
-47% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Tula
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Tyumen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
23.08.2024 Tyumen Tyumen 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
30.03.2024 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 0-0 HT 0-0 Tyumen Tyumen RUS1
04.09.2023 Tyumen Tyumen 1-2 HT 0-2 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Tula
1-2
AWAY Tyumen
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal Tula vs Tyumen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tyumen nicked a narrow win over Arsenal Tula 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Arsenal Tula carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal Tula had 62% of the ball to Tyumen's 38%, shots finished 13-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal Tula had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Arsenal Tula and 0.33 for Tyumen.

What was the final score of Arsenal Tula vs Tyumen?

Arsenal Tula 1-2 Tyumen in the Russia - FNL on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Tula vs Tyumen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Tula win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Tula 56%, draw 26%, Tyumen 17%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Tula) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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