Baltika Kaliningrad 2-1 FK Rodina Moskva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.6pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.7pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.1pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
1.52/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.63
-2% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +110%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
1W-2D-0L
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.07.2024 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 0-0 HT 0-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS1
07.04.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
18.09.2022 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 1-2 HT 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
2-1
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Rodina Moskva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baltika Kaliningrad squeezed past FK Rodina Moskva 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Baltika Kaliningrad as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Baltika Kaliningrad had 51% of the ball to FK Rodina Moskva's 49%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Baltika Kaliningrad had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Baltika Kaliningrad and 0.33 for FK Rodina Moskva.

What was the final score of Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Baltika Kaliningrad 2-1 FK Rodina Moskva in the Russia - FNL on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baltika Kaliningrad win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Baltika Kaliningrad 47%, draw 31%, FK Rodina Moskva 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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