Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria Guimaraes v Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
3-1
HT 1-1
Nacional
POR
2-2
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR
1-0
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
1-2
HT 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
2-1
HT 0-0
Nacional
POR
Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes and Nacional shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 59% of the ball to Nacional's 41%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.43 to 0.63.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.17 for Nacional.
What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 50%, draw 29%, Nacional 21%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.