Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 23 Dec 2024

📅23/12/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.37
Draw
29%
4.34
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.37
6+ Goals
8%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 29% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.69
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
20.8
X/1
13%
3.41
X/2
9%
16.05
X/X
13%
6.07
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
7%
13.9
2/X
9%
22.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
68%
-18.2pp
29%
Draw
20%
+9.6pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+8.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.5pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.73/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.87
-25% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -2%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 72%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
24.9 Crosses 13.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.88 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
324 Passes 291
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
26.04.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR
05.05.2019 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
02.01.2019 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
31.03.2017 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
04.11.2016 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-2
AWAY Nacional
2.43 xG 0.63
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
387 Passes 253
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes and Nacional shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 59% of the ball to Nacional's 41%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.43 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.17 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 50%, draw 29%, Nacional 21%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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