Benfica 3-0 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 23 Dec 2024

Benfica
3-0 HT 1-0
Estoril
📅23/12/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Benfica vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.16
Draw
16%
7.13
Away
13%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.13
No
51%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
6.71
2-3 Goals
39%
2.13
4-5 Goals
29%
2.4
6+ Goals
17%
4.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1.25
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
20%
3.53
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
6%
12.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.7
2/2
5%
30.0
2/X
4%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
82%
-11.5pp
16%
Draw
12%
+4.8pp
13%
Away Win
6%
+6.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
43%
+6.5pp
51%
BTTS No
57%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 8%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
2.78/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.78
+15% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -4%
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
510 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 73%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
23.2 Crosses 12.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Benfica vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Estoril
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.71 xG 0.53
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
532 Passes 251
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-1 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
24.01.2024 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril PORLC
07.10.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
23.04.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
09.11.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POK
06.11.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-5 HT 0-3 Benfica Benfica POR

Benfica 3-0 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-0
AWAY Estoril
2.48 xG 0.41
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
468 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
42 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica swept aside Estoril 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 59% of the ball to Estoril's 41%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.48 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Benfica and 0.50 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Estoril?

Benfica 3-0 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Benfica 71%, draw 16%, Estoril 13%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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