Fulham 1-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 24 Jan 2024

Fulham
1-1 HT 0-1
Liverpool
📅24/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - League Cup – 2023/2024

Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.81
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.79
6+ Goals
12%
7.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.79
1/2
6%
21.3
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
9%
7.4
X/2
20%
4.74
X/X
11%
5.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
31.0
2/2
20%
2.59
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.5pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fulham v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 51%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.28/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.90
-32% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +150%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 452 · 81%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.2
19.3 Crosses 27.7
0.0 Yellow Cards 0.6

Fulham vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.08 xG 1.62
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
258 Passes 546
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 0-1 Fulham Fulham İNLK
03.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 4-3 HT 2-2 Fulham Fulham İNP
03.05.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
06.08.2022 Fulham Fulham 2-2 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
07.03.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 0-1 HT 0-1 Fulham Fulham İNP
13.12.2020 Fulham Fulham 1-1 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Fulham 1-1 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
1-1
AWAY Liverpool
0.86 xG 0.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
357 Passes 408
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fulham and Liverpool couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fulham had 49% of the ball to Liverpool's 51%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.86 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fulham and 1.67 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Liverpool?

Fulham 1-1 Liverpool in the England - League Cup on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fulham 30%, draw 24%, Liverpool 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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