Athletic Bilbao 4-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 24 Jan 2024

Athletic Bilbao
4-2 HT 1-2
Barcelona
📅24/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2023/2024

Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 27% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.08
1/2
9%
24.7
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
13%
6.23
X/2
12%
5.19
X/X
11%
4.98
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
21%
3.16
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.2pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.65/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/2.03
+17% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -42%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 83%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.4 Crosses 15.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.99 xG 1.35
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
240 Passes 573
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
12.03.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
23.10.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 3-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
27.02.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
20.01.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 1-1 Barcelona Barcelona İSPK
21.08.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Athletic Bilbao 4-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
4-2
AWAY Barcelona
3.96 xG 1.48
39% Ball Possession 61%
29 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
356 Passes 652
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
48 Box Touches 16
33 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao beat Barcelona 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Barcelona at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 39% of the ball to Barcelona's 61%, shots finished 29-7, expected goals 3.96 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 2.17 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona?

Athletic Bilbao 4-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 34%, draw 24%, Barcelona 42%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ Under 2.5
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