Paraguay U23 4-3 Uruguay U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers, 24 Jan 2024

📅24/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
32%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
32%
Away Win
41%
-8.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paraguay U23 EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Uruguay U23 EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paraguay U23
4-3
AWAY Uruguay U23
0.69 xG 2.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 21
7 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 5
159 Passes 262
63% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 28
5 Crosses 25
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paraguay U23 vs Uruguay U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paraguay U23 squeezed past Uruguay U23 4-3. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Paraguay U23 made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Paraguay U23 had 42% of the ball to Uruguay U23's 58%, shots finished 13-21, expected goals 0.69 to 2.34 — the balance of chances actually favoured Uruguay U23.

What was the final score of Paraguay U23 vs Uruguay U23?

Paraguay U23 4-3 Uruguay U23 in the CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paraguay U23 vs Uruguay U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paraguay U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Paraguay U23 38%, draw 30%, Uruguay U23 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paraguay U23), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paraguay U23) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
COE More CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers
24 Jan 2024
02:00 Ekvador U23 vs Venezuela U23 Analysis →