CA La Paz 2-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 24 Jan 2024

📅24/01/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
39%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.07
Over 2.5
57%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-8.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
39%
Away Win
28%
+10.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.2pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 32%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.92/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.45
+31% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
368 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
06.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
15.01.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
09.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz saw off Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; CA La Paz found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CA La Paz and 2.25 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

CA La Paz 2-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 38%, draw 23%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 39%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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