Spezia vs Sassuolo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Spezia v Sassuolo — Team-Based Signals
Spezia vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Spezia 2-1 Sassuolo — Actual Match Statistics
Spezia nicked a narrow win over Sassuolo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Spezia made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Spezia had 53% of the ball to Sassuolo's 47%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.72 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Spezia's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spezia and 1.50 for Sassuolo.
What was the final score of Spezia vs Sassuolo?
Spezia 2-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie B on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Spezia vs Sassuolo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Spezia 39%, draw 31%, Sassuolo 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.