Spezia 2-1 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 24 Jan 2025

📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.8
Over
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.08
2-3
42%
1.75
4-5
21%
3.57
6+
9%
14.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.5
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
11%
11.85
X/1
13%
5.59
X/2
11%
6.39
X/X
13%
4.19
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
12%
4.33
2/X
7%
12.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.7pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.8pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia The Market 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo The Market 34%
+6% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.45/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.42
-4% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
23.6 Crosses 14.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Sassuolo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 1.80
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
314 Passes 471
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
02.11.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTK
17.03.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
27.08.2022 Spezia Spezia 2-2 HT 2-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
18.03.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 4-1 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTA
05.12.2021 Spezia Spezia 2-2 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-1
AWAY Sassuolo
2.72 xG 0.69
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
257 Passes 224
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia nicked a narrow win over Sassuolo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Spezia made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Spezia had 53% of the ball to Sassuolo's 47%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.72 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Spezia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spezia and 1.50 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Sassuolo?

Spezia 2-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie B on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Spezia 39%, draw 31%, Sassuolo 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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