Sassuolo 0-0 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.92
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
10%
4.74
X/2
10%
7.13
X/X
16%
4.27
2/1
11%
26.5
2/2
12%
5.22
2/X
5%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.95/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.42
+24% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
10.0 Crosses 19.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Spezia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.86 xG 1.18
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
452 Passes 314
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTK
17.03.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
27.08.2022 Spezia Spezia 2-2 HT 2-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
18.03.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 4-1 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTA
05.12.2021 Spezia Spezia 2-2 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
06.02.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-2 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
0-0
AWAY Spezia
0.42 xG 0.56
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
454 Passes 273
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo and Spezia played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Sassuolo at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sassuolo had 60% of the ball to Spezia's 40%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.42 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sassuolo and 1.17 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Spezia?

Sassuolo 0-0 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 44%, draw 27%, Spezia 29%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sassuolo), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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