Ipora 1-3 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Goiano 1, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
Over
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
39%
4-5
21%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ipora The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova The Market 32%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.87/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/0.84
-48% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +51%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ipora
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2022 Ipora Ipora 2-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRGO1
11.02.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 5-0 HT 1-0 Ipora Ipora BRGO1
14.04.2021 Ipora Ipora 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRGO1
13.03.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 5-0 HT 1-0 Ipora Ipora BRGO1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ipora
1-3
AWAY Vila Nova
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Ipora vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova saw off Ipora 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Ipora at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ipora had 55% of the ball to Vila Nova's 45%, shots finished 7-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ipora and 2.50 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Ipora vs Vila Nova?

Ipora 1-3 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Goiano 1 on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ipora vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ipora win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ipora 41%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ipora) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BRGO1 More Brazil - Goiano 1
24 Feb 2024
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