NK Varazdin 1-1 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.4
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
46%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.09
6+ Goals
11%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 34% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
15%
+11.5pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.1pp
46%
Away Win
61%
-15.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.0pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 66%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
0.77/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.84
+12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -20%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
239 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 78%
12.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
13.2 Crosses 16.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.03 xG 1.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
315 Passes 288
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.11.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-1 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.08.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
22.04.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
11.02.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-4 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
08.10.2022 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.07.2022 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-2 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.13 xG 0.94
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 11
198 Passes 439
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 37
5 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Hajduk Split couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 34% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 66%, shots finished 3-17, expected goals 0.13 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NK Varazdin and 2.50 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

NK Varazdin 1-1 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 27%, draw 28%, Hajduk Split 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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