Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Ruch Chorzow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 24 Feb 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-1 HT 0-1
Ruch Chorzow
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1.93
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
3.91
X/2
11%
11.3
X/X
13%
6.1
2/1
9%
21.1
2/2
8%
8.27
2/X
6%
16.1
Value flag · X/1 at 3.91 — our 27% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+7.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Ruch Chorzow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Ruch Chorzow EU Bookmakers 21%
-12% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
2.26/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/2.13
+3% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
16.6 Crosses 15.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Ruch Chorzow
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.78 xG 1.23
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
340 Passes 285
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 0-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
26.11.2016 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 1-2 HT 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
23.07.2016 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 2-1 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
11.12.2015 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 0-4 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.08.2015 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 1-0 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
29.04.2015 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 1-0 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Ruch Chorzow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-1
AWAY Ruch Chorzow
0.60 xG 0.52
68% Ball Possession 32%
11 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
600 Passes 240
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok and Ruch Chorzow shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 68% of the ball to Ruch Chorzow's 32%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.60 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 0.50 for Ruch Chorzow.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Ruch Chorzow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 51%, draw 24%, Ruch Chorzow 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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