Capital Brasilia 3-2 Brasiliense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Brasiliense, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.0
Draw
21%
3.11
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
Over
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Total Goals
0-1
42%
2-3
32%
4-5
14%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
49%
Home Win
46%
+2.8pp
21%
Draw
29%
-7.4pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Capital Brasilia The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Brasiliense The Market 29%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.94/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
+46% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
289 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Capital Brasilia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Brasiliense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
22.03.2024 Brasiliense Brasiliense 1-3 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia BRBR
02.04.2023 Brasiliense Brasiliense 1-0 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia BRBR
26.03.2023 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 0-2 HT 0-1 Brasiliense Brasiliense BRBR
08.02.2023 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 0-0 HT 0-0 Brasiliense Brasiliense BRBR
19.02.2022 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 0-0 HT 0-0 Brasiliense Brasiliense BRBR
21.04.2021 Brasiliense Brasiliense 1-0 HT 0-0 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia BRBR
POST-MATCH Capital Brasilia vs Brasiliense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Capital Brasilia squeezed past Brasiliense 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Capital Brasilia as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brasiliense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Capital Brasilia and 0.83 for Brasiliense.

What was the final score of Capital Brasilia vs Brasiliense?

Capital Brasilia 3-2 Brasiliense in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Capital Brasilia vs Brasiliense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Capital Brasilia win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Capital Brasilia 49%, draw 21%, Brasiliense 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Capital Brasilia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Capital Brasilia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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