El Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Cuenca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
35%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.43
Over 2.5
44%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.5pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.8pp
35%
Away Win
44%
-8.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
38%
+18.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
62%
-18.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.33/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.66
-12% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
21.6 Crosses 19.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.69 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
234 Passes 200
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
11.06.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
31.10.2020 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
10.03.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
03.08.2019 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 2-2 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
12.03.2019 El Nacional El Nacional 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Deportivo Cuenca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional edged past Deportivo Cuenca 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day El Nacional made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Deportivo Cuenca.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Deportivo Cuenca?

El Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Cuenca in the Ecuador - Premier on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Deportivo Cuenca?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 37%, draw 28%, Deportivo Cuenca 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
24 Mar 2024
23:30 Tecnico Universitario vs Macara Analysis →