Carabobo 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-6.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-5.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.6pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carabobo EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 19%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +6%
1.23/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.45
+21% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
21.6 Crosses 15.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carabobo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.92 xG 0.53
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
379 Passes 266
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.06.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 0-1 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
21.05.2023 Carabobo Carabobo 2-0 HT 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
09.09.2022 Carabobo Carabobo 0-0 HT 0-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
11.03.2022 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-0 HT 0-0 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
26.11.2020 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 3-2 HT 3-1 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
26.10.2020 Carabobo Carabobo 2-2 HT 0-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carabobo
1-0
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.97 xG 0.61
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 Passes 233
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 8
32 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Carabobo vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carabobo edged past Estudiantes De Merida 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Carabobo as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Carabobo had 54% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 46%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.97 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carabobo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Carabobo and 1.00 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of Carabobo vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Carabobo 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carabobo vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carabobo win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Carabobo 54%, draw 24%, Estudiantes De Merida 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carabobo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Carabobo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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