Atalanta 4-1 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 24 Apr 2024

Atalanta
4-1 HT 1-0
Fiorentina
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2023/2024

Atalanta vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.76
6+ Goals
12%
16.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.76 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.56
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
12%
4.26
X/2
10%
7.96
X/X
13%
4.53
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
8%
6.14
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.0pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.74/2.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.99
+21% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +77% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
17.2 Crosses 20.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Atalanta vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.72 xG 1.48
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
285 Passes 381
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.04.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTK
17.09.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-2 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
17.04.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
02.10.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
20.02.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
10.02.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 2-3 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTK

Atalanta 4-1 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
4-1
AWAY Fiorentina
2.37 xG 0.56
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
362 Passes 259
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta ran out comfortable winners over Fiorentina 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atalanta had 57% of the ball to Fiorentina's 43%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.37 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atalanta and 1.50 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Fiorentina?

Atalanta 4-1 Fiorentina in the Italy - Cup on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 45%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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