Karabağ 4-1 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.29
Draw
17%
5.15
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
5%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
73%
-7.5pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.6pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 14%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
2.17/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
-6% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +116%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
454 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
02.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-4 HT 0-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
03.03.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-4 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
18.12.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
08.10.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-2 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
02.05.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-4 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.02.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 1-1 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ ran out comfortable winners over Neftçi PFK 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Karabağ and 0.67 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Karabağ 4-1 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 65%, draw 17%, Neftçi PFK 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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