Ajax 2-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Apr 2024

Ajax
2-2 HT 1-1
Excelsior
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.61
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.97
2-3 Goals
37%
2.07
4-5 Goals
29%
2.57
6+ Goals
14%
5.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.63
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
19.1
X/1
18%
3.72
X/2
10%
15.1
X/X
13%
8.11
2/1
7%
19.3
2/2
7%
10.4
2/X
7%
19.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.6pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.5pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.17/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.81
-2% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
394 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 75%
36.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.0 Crosses 15.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Ajax vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Excelsior
4.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
4.02 xG 1.20
68% Ball Possession 32%
23 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
568 Passes 216
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
55 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
29.01.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
16.10.2022 Ajax Ajax 7-1 HT 3-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
13.04.2019 Ajax Ajax 6-2 HT 3-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
11.11.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 1-7 HT 0-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
06.05.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 1-2 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL

Ajax 2-2 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-2
AWAY Excelsior
1.48 xG 1.23
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
498 Passes 349
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and Excelsior shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Ajax had 57% of the ball to Excelsior's 43%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 1.48 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 4.67 goals for Ajax and 1.33 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Excelsior?

Ajax 2-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Ajax 53%, draw 25%, Excelsior 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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