Trabzonspor 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.81
6+ Goals
13%
16.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.81 — our 24% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
17%
3.88
X/2
7%
10.25
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
10%
8.39
2/X
5%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
+0.1pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.9pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 21%
+15% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.23/0.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
-38% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +73%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
453 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trabzonspor
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.08 xG 1.02
57% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
462 Passes 339
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 5-1 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
29.10.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
22.05.2023 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 4-1 HT 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.12.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 2-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
15.04.2022 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.11.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trabzonspor
3-2
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trabzonspor edged past Fatih Karagümrük 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Trabzonspor as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Trabzonspor had 51% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 49%, shots finished 13-22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trabzonspor had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.17 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Trabzonspor 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Cup on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trabzonspor win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Trabzonspor 56%, draw 21%, Fatih Karagümrük 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trabzonspor), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trabzonspor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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