Trabzonspor 5-1 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.68
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.29
6+ Goals
12%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 30% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.37
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
17%
4.18
X/2
9%
8.38
X/X
11%
5.2
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
10%
6.2
2/X
8%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 27%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.56/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.59
+12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
18.3 Crosses 18.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trabzonspor
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.04 xG 1.16
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
428 Passes 403
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
22.05.2023 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 4-1 HT 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.12.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 2-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
15.04.2022 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.11.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
24.04.2021 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trabzonspor
5-1
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
3.09 xG 0.29
67% Ball Possession 33%
26 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
523 Passes 244
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
43 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trabzonspor ran out comfortable winners over Fatih Karagümrük 5-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Trabzonspor as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Trabzonspor had 67% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 33%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 3.09 to 0.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trabzonspor had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.00 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Trabzonspor 5-1 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trabzonspor win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Trabzonspor 47%, draw 26%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trabzonspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trabzonspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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