AZ Alkmaar 1-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
7.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.9
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
18%
4.2
X/2
8%
11.6
X/X
7%
6.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.35
2/2
10%
8.89
2/X
8%
17.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-6.8pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.8pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
2.10/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.07
+18% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
33.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.1 Crosses 14.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
5W-0D-1L
AWAY NAC Breda
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.95 xG 1.26
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
543 Passes 251
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
40 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
12.02.2020 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-3 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOK
08.02.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
12.08.2018 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-0 HT 3-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
17.02.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.09.2017 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-1
AWAY NAC Breda
1.32 xG 0.48
71% Ball Possession 29%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
543 Passes 174
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
43 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 71% of the ball to NAC Breda's 29%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.32 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.00 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?

AZ Alkmaar 1-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 54%, draw 23%, NAC Breda 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5
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