New Mexico United 1-0 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.9
No
62%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.04
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
6%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 29% vs market 26.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-11.1pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.49/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.58
+4% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
13.8 Crosses 18.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.27 xG 1.04
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
335 Passes 337
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.08.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-2 HT 2-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.06.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
14.05.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
09.04.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 4-2 HT 2-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
21.08.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 2-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.07.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-1 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-0
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.97 xG 0.35
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
381 Passes 276
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay
Match summary & frequently asked questions

New Mexico United edged past Monterey Bay 1-0 in the USL Championship on 24 Apr 2025.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams scoring was against the odds at 38%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 56% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 44%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.97 to 0.35.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United have the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for New Mexico United and 1.50 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?

New Mexico United 1-0 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 50%, draw 23%, Monterey Bay 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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