Vitebsk 2-0 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 24 May 2024

📅24/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 28%
-21% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
0.95/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/0.84
-32% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +58%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitebsk
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
09.02.2018 Vitebsk Vitebsk 0-5 HT 0-2 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk HAZ
16.08.2015 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
26.04.2015 Vitebsk Vitebsk 1-3 HT 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitebsk
2-0
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitebsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitebsk beat Naftan Novopolotsk 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vitebsk as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Vitebsk had 53% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 47%, shots finished 12-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Naftan Novopolotsk led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Vitebsk and 3.67 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of Vitebsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Vitebsk 2-0 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 24/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitebsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vitebsk 45%, draw 25%, Naftan Novopolotsk 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitebsk) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitebsk) ✗ BTTS Yes
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