Melbourne Knights vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne Knights v North Geelong Warriors — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne Knights vs North Geelong Warriors Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-3
Melbourne Knights
AVNPL
3-2
HT 2-0
North Geelong Warriors
AVNPL
0-1
HT 0-0
Melbourne Knights
AVNPL
Melbourne Knights edged past North Geelong Warriors 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne Knights as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Melbourne Knights had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Melbourne Knights and 0.75 for North Geelong Warriors.
What was the final score of Melbourne Knights vs North Geelong Warriors?
Melbourne Knights 2-1 North Geelong Warriors in the AVPL1 on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne Knights vs North Geelong Warriors?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Knights win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Knights 61%, draw 17%, North Geelong Warriors 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Knights), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.