Bolivar 3-2 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 24 Jul 2026

📅24/07/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.47
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.0
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
23%
4.04
X/2
5%
10.45
X/X
11%
5.5
2/1
10%
22.25
2/2
11%
8.49
2/X
8%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.0pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolivar EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
2.38/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.50
+27% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
27.1 Crosses 7.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolivar
3-2
AWAY Gremio
4.37 xG 1.65
31 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
366 Passes 262
35 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bolivar vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolivar nicked a narrow win over Gremio 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bolivar as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 31-13, expected goals 4.37 to 1.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bolivar's control.

What was the final score of Bolivar vs Gremio?

Bolivar 3-2 Gremio in the Copa Sudamericana on 24/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolivar vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolivar win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Bolivar 53%, draw 26%, Gremio 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bolivar), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bolivar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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