Luzern 3-0 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.38
Over 2.5
49%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.96
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
23%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.32
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.96 — our 28% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.15
X/1
17%
4.06
X/2
12%
10.1
X/X
10%
6.42
2/1
6%
19.95
2/2
10%
6.97
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-11.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.1pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 24%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.61/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.63
-38% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
24.7 Crosses 11.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Winterthur
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 0.84
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
315 Passes 304
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.02.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
25.11.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
22.07.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
27.04.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
10.04.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
05.11.2022 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
3-0
AWAY Winterthur
2.04 xG 0.33
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
246 Passes 471
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern ran out comfortable winners over Winterthur 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Luzern as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Luzern had 38% of the ball to Winterthur's 62%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.04 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Luzern and 1.00 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Winterthur?

Luzern 3-0 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Luzern 46%, draw 26%, Winterthur 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luzern), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Luzern) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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