Winterthur 2-1 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.56
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
11%
5.74
X/2
11%
5.65
X/X
13%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✓
7%
26.0
2/2
20%
3.48
2/X
9%
12.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-3.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
1.12/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.38
-23% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
15.0 Crosses 19.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Luzern
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.84 xG 2.01
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
283 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.11.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
22.07.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
27.04.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
10.04.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
05.11.2022 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
10.09.2022 Winterthur Winterthur 0-6 HT 0-4 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
2-1
AWAY Luzern
0.60 xG 1.81
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
398 Passes 253
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winterthur edged past Luzern 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Winterthur made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Winterthur had 58% of the ball to Luzern's 42%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.60 to 1.81 — the balance of chances actually favoured Luzern.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Winterthur and 2.50 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Luzern?

Winterthur 2-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated an Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 33%, draw 29%, Luzern 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
11 Feb 2024
18:30 Basel vs St. Gallen Analysis →
18:30 Yverdon vs Servette Analysis →