Instituto Cordoba 4-1 Defensa y Justicia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.72
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.54
6+ Goals
8%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 35% vs market 32.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.45
X/1
14%
3.8
X/2
8%
9.73
X/X
17%
4.2
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
13%
8.44
2/X
5%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
55%
-12.9pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.7pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Instituto Cordoba EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 21%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -7%
1.26/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.55
-67% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 205 · 70%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
32.7 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Instituto Cordoba
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.02 xG 1.55
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
421 Passes 251
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.04.2023 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-0 HT 0-0 Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba ARJ
09.12.2013 Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba 1-1 HT 0-1 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Instituto Cordoba
4-1
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
1.72 xG 1.09
38% Ball Possession 62%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
198 Passes 384
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Instituto Cordoba vs Defensa y Justicia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Instituto Cordoba swept aside Defensa y Justicia 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Instituto Cordoba as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Instituto Cordoba had 38% of the ball to Defensa y Justicia's 62%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.72 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Defensa y Justicia led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 1.00 for Defensa y Justicia.

What was the final score of Instituto Cordoba vs Defensa y Justicia?

Instituto Cordoba 4-1 Defensa y Justicia in the Argentina - Premier League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Instituto Cordoba vs Defensa y Justicia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Instituto Cordoba win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Instituto Cordoba 42%, draw 31%, Defensa y Justicia 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Instituto Cordoba) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Instituto Cordoba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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