Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
48%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
48%
Away Win
45%
+2.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.5pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 49%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.15/0.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.18
+0% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2 Corners 6
13.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 2-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
13.02.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
26.11.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
16.09.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan and Neftçi PFK shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi PFK at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Araz Nahçıvan had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 1.00 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Neftçi PFK?

Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 26%, draw 26%, Neftçi PFK 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Neftçi PFK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
24 Aug 2024
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