Karabağ 0-1 Turan Tovuz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.32
Draw
27%
4.81
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.38
Over 2.5
58%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.88
No
43%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
27%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
71%
-14.5pp
27%
Draw
18%
+8.9pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+5.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
49%
+8.4pp
43%
BTTS No
51%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +24%
2.75/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.69
+41% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / +31%
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
357 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Turan Tovuz
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
73% Ball Possession 27%
16 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 2
17.05.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-3 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.03.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-3 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.10.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
25.01.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-3 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
09.11.2022 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-2 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Turan Tovuz edged past Karabağ 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Karabağ at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Karabağ and 1.33 for Turan Tovuz.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Karabağ 0-1 Turan Tovuz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 57%, draw 27%, Turan Tovuz 17%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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24 Aug 2024
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