Midtjylland 3-2 SonderjyskE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.46
2-3 Goals
41%
2.01
4-5 Goals
24%
2.66
6+ Goals
12%
6.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.09
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
22%
4.28
X/2
10%
9.73
X/X
9%
6.43
2/1
7%
19.7
2/2
10%
6.41
2/X
6%
14.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-2.7pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.4pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.6pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY SonderjyskE EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.97/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.61
+8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
383 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.5 Crosses 14.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Midtjylland
3W-1D-2L
AWAY SonderjyskE
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.98 xG 1.07
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
318 Passes 266
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
29.06.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-2 HT 2-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE HAZ
24.10.2021 Midtjylland Midtjylland 3-2 HT 1-1 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
13.08.2021 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 0-2 HT 0-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
15.04.2021 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 3-1 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAK
08.04.2021 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-0 HT 0-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAK
04.02.2021 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-2 HT 0-1 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
3-2
AWAY SonderjyskE
2.46 xG 0.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
244 Passes 279
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs SonderjyskE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland nicked a narrow win over SonderjyskE 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Midtjylland had 46% of the ball to SonderjyskE's 54%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 2.46 to 0.83 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Midtjylland's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Midtjylland and 1.50 for SonderjyskE.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs SonderjyskE?

Midtjylland 3-2 SonderjyskE in the Denmark - Süperlig on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs SonderjyskE?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 53%, draw 21%, SonderjyskE 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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