Tusker 1-0 Sofapaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.27
No
66%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
3%
X/X
19%
2/1
3%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.5pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.6pp
34%
BTTS Yes
40%
-5.8pp
66%
BTTS No
60%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tusker EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 19%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.27
+74% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -26%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tusker
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sofapaka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
25.02.2022 Sofapaka Sofapaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN2
12.12.2021 Tusker Tusker 0-0 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tusker
1-0
AWAY Sofapaka
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tusker vs Sofapaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tusker squeezed past Sofapaka 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tusker as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (66%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tusker had 50% of the ball to Sofapaka's 50%, shots finished 10-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tusker had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tusker and 0.00 for Sofapaka.

What was the final score of Tusker vs Sofapaka?

Tusker 1-0 Sofapaka in the Kenya - Premier League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tusker vs Sofapaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tusker win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Tusker 55%, draw 27%, Sofapaka 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tusker), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tusker) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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