Leixoes 3-3 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.38
2-3 Goals
46%
1.78
4-5 Goals
14%
5.08
6+ Goals
7%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-3.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.4pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.24/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.20
-22% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.2 Crosses 18.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.97 xG 1.45
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
250 Passes 296
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.02.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 1-1 HT 0-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
15.09.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-2 HT 0-2 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
20.09.2017 Leixoes Leixoes 1-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira PORLC
11.04.2010 Leixoes Leixoes 2-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
29.11.2009 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
13.03.2009 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 4-0 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
3-3
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
2.05 xG 0.96
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
247 Passes 306
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
8 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes and Paços De Ferreira shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 30% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leixoes had 45% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 55%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 2.05 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leixoes had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leixoes and 1.17 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira?

Leixoes 3-3 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 39%, draw 30%, Paços De Ferreira 30%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leixoes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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