Fakel 1-0 Neftekhimik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 24 Aug 2025

📅24/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
Over 2.5
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.51
No
51%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
36%
+13.5pp
51%
BTTS No
64%
-13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 19%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.30/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.27
-20% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 193 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Neftekhimik
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.11.2021 Fakel Fakel 3-1 HT 2-1 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
14.08.2021 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 3-0 HT 2-0 Fakel Fakel RUS1
03.04.2021 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 1-1 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
09.10.2020 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 3-1 HT 2-1 Fakel Fakel RUS1
12.10.2019 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
1-0
AWAY Neftekhimik
69% Ball Possession 31%
8 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Neftekhimik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel edged past Neftekhimik 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fakel as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fakel had 69% of the ball to Neftekhimik's 31%, shots finished 8-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Neftekhimik led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fakel and 1.80 for Neftekhimik.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Neftekhimik?

Fakel 1-0 Neftekhimik in the Russia - FNL on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Neftekhimik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fakel 50%, draw 27%, Neftekhimik 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fakel), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fakel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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