Bellinzona 2-1 Stade Ouchy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.5
6+ Goals
12%
13.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.5 — our 26% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
12%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+6.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Ouchy EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.11/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/2.34
-36% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
16.7 Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Stade Ouchy
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.25
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.05.2023 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 6-0 HT 3-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
05.03.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-0 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV2
05.11.2022 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 2-1 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
30.07.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-4 HT 1-2 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
2-1
AWAY Stade Ouchy
1.47 xG 1.39
32% Ball Possession 68%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
129 Passes 382
60% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Stade Ouchy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona nicked a narrow win over Stade Ouchy 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Bellinzona made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Bellinzona had 32% of the ball to Stade Ouchy's 68%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.47 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Stade Ouchy led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bellinzona and 3.25 for Stade Ouchy.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Stade Ouchy?

Bellinzona 2-1 Stade Ouchy in the Switzerland Challenge League on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Stade Ouchy?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stade Ouchy win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 36%, draw 26%, Stade Ouchy 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stade Ouchy) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stade Ouchy) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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