Valerenga 4-1 Aalesund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 1st Division, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.51
Over Pick
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
19%
5.51
2-3
39%
2.01
4-5
29%
2.65
6+
13%
6.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-12.5pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.2pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+10.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valerenga EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalesund EU Bookmakers 17%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.62/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.06/1.67
+27% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -94% / +20%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
450 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valerenga
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Aalesund
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.30 xG 0.89
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
441 Passes 283
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Aalesund Aalesund 0-2 HT 0-1 Valerenga Valerenga NOR1
17.09.2023 Valerenga Valerenga 3-1 HT 1-1 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
10.04.2023 Aalesund Aalesund 0-1 HT 0-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
07.08.2022 Valerenga Valerenga 4-0 HT 0-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
19.06.2022 Aalesund Aalesund 2-2 HT 1-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
21.11.2020 Aalesund Aalesund 1-1 HT 1-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valerenga
4-1
AWAY Aalesund
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valerenga vs Aalesund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valerenga cruised past Aalesund 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valerenga as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Valerenga had 62% of the ball to Aalesund's 38%, shots finished 17-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valerenga had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Valerenga and 0.67 for Aalesund.

What was the final score of Valerenga vs Aalesund?

Valerenga 4-1 Aalesund in the Norway - 1st Division on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valerenga vs Aalesund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valerenga win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Valerenga 54%, draw 21%, Aalesund 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valerenga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valerenga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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