Al Kholood 1-3 Al Shabab Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
44%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.15
2-3 Goals
48%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.72
6+ Goals
7%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 26% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
7.72
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
9%
16.45
X/1
12%
9.52
X/2
14%
3.8
X/X
9%
5.0
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.18
2/X
6%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
21%
+11.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
44%
Away Win
55%
-11.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Kholood EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 60%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / +6%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
243 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Kholood
1-3
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
0.82 xG 2.81
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
221 Passes 413
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Kholood vs Al Shabab Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Shabab Riyadh beat Al Kholood 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Shabab Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Al Kholood had 38% of the ball to Al Shabab Riyadh's 62%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.82 to 2.81.

What was the final score of Al Kholood vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Al Kholood 1-3 Al Shabab Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Kholood vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Shabab Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Al Kholood 32%, draw 24%, Al Shabab Riyadh 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Shabab Riyadh) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Shabab Riyadh) ✗ Under 2.5
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