Holstein Kiel 0-3 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
11%
12.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
10%
6.65
X/2
15%
5.19
X/X
14%
4.67
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
19%
3.17
2/X
5%
12.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.09/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.19
-29% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
15.1 Crosses 18.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 19
11 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
321 Passes 376
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.10.2017 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-2 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AFK
21.12.2011 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
0-3
AWAY Mainz 05
0.43 xG 2.32
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
263 Passes 471
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 35
9 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 cruised past Holstein Kiel 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 38% of the ball to Mainz 05's 62%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.43 to 2.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.50 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Mainz 05?

Holstein Kiel 0-3 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 33%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 42%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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