Ingolstadt 4-2 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
28%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
8.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.51
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.56
X/2
8%
7.91
X/X
14%
5.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.7
2/2
13%
5.35
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -17%
1.64/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.89
+3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.4 Crosses 18.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.88 xG 0.89
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
189 Passes 375
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-4 HT 1-3 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
10.08.2022 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
30.05.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-1 HT 2-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2P
27.05.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-0 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2P
15.05.2011 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-1 HT 0-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
19.12.2010 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-1 HT 0-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
4-2
AWAY Osnabrück
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
273 Passes 410
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt saw off Osnabrück 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ingolstadt as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 42% of the ball to Osnabrück's 58%, shots finished 16-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osnabrück led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.67 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück?

Ingolstadt 4-2 Osnabrück in the Germany - 3rd Division on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 47%, draw 25%, Osnabrück 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ingolstadt), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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