Borussia Dortmund II 3-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 24 Nov 2024

Borussia Dortmund II
3-1
Erzgebirge Aue
📅24/11/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
9%
9.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.31 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.32
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
5%
12.45
X/1
8%
5.54
X/2
12%
6.24
X/X
13%
5.16
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
18%
3.92
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.9pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund II v Erzgebirge Aue — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.20/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.50
-22% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
365 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.6 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 2-2 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
25.11.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
15.05.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
11.11.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3

Borussia Dortmund II 3-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
3-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II got the better of Erzgebirge Aue 3-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Borussia Dortmund II made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 49% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 51%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 2.00 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Borussia Dortmund II 3-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 38%, draw 26%, Erzgebirge Aue 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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