Borussia Dortmund II 2-2 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
8.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.15
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
9%
5.31
X/2
13%
6.34
X/X
8%
5.21
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
14%
4.02
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.11/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.44
-27% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
15.05.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
11.11.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
2-2
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II and Erzgebirge Aue couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 45% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 55%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 2.00 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Borussia Dortmund II 2-2 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 40%, draw 25%, Erzgebirge Aue 35%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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