MSV Duisburg 3-1 Sandhausen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 27 Apr 2024

MSV Duisburg
3-1 HT 2-0
Sandhausen
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

MSV Duisburg vs Sandhausen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.62
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
6%
12.1
X/1
15%
5.85
X/2
9%
5.84
X/X
11%
4.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
19%
3.61
2/X
10%
12.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.3pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MSV Duisburg v Sandhausen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandhausen EU Bookmakers 40%
-10% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.13/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.11
-20% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
285 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 73%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
15.4 Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0

MSV Duisburg vs Sandhausen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MSV Duisburg
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sandhausen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.60 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
264 Passes 245
70% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Sandhausen Sandhausen 2-0 HT 2-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
20.04.2019 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Sandhausen Sandhausen AL2
09.11.2018 Sandhausen Sandhausen 0-0 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
14.04.2018 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Sandhausen Sandhausen AL2
03.11.2017 Sandhausen Sandhausen 0-1 HT 0-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
08.05.2016 Sandhausen Sandhausen 2-2 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2

MSV Duisburg 3-1 Sandhausen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MSV Duisburg
3-1
AWAY Sandhausen
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg vs Sandhausen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg beat Sandhausen 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; MSV Duisburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, MSV Duisburg had 47% of the ball to Sandhausen's 53%, shots finished 11-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sandhausen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for MSV Duisburg and 1.33 for Sandhausen.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg vs Sandhausen?

MSV Duisburg 3-1 Sandhausen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg vs Sandhausen?

Before kick-off our model rated a MSV Duisburg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg 40%, draw 27%, Sandhausen 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MSV Duisburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MSV Duisburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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