Venados 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 25 Jan 2024

📅25/01/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.75
Over 2.5
52%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
53%
-5.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
47%
+5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venados EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -4%
1.56/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.20
+15% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venados
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
6 Corners 4
18.08.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 4-1 HT 2-0 Venados Venados MEK2
05.04.2023 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
29.10.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 2-0 Venados Venados MEK2
26.10.2022 Venados Venados 2-0 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
08.08.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 4-0 HT 3-0 Venados Venados MEK2
24.02.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-1 HT 0-1 Venados Venados MEK2
POST-MATCH Venados vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados and Leones Negros Udeg shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Venados at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Venados and 2.00 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of Venados vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Venados 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venados vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Venados 41%, draw 27%, Leones Negros Udeg 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Venados), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Venados) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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