Groningen 1-0 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 25 Jan 2025

Groningen
1-0 HT 0-0
Heerenveen
📅25/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Groningen vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.67
Over 2.5
34%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.88
No
62%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
15%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 35% vs market 31.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.9
X/1
13%
4.99
X/2
12%
6.58
X/X
15%
3.99
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
9%
4.99
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
56%
+9.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
44%
-9.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-11.5pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Groningen v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
1.21/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.25
-30% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
18.9 Crosses 17.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Groningen vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Heerenveen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.74 xG 1.62
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
293 Passes 321
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.09.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
19.03.2023 Groningen Groningen 0-2 HT 0-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
22.01.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
10.04.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
12.09.2021 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.04.2021 Groningen Groningen 0-2 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL

Groningen 1-0 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
1-0
AWAY Heerenveen
0.72 xG 0.97
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
297 Passes 404
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Groningen vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen nicked a narrow win over Heerenveen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Groningen had 45% of the ball to Heerenveen's 55%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.72 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heerenveen led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Groningen and 2.17 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Groningen vs Heerenveen?

Groningen 1-0 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Groningen 43%, draw 30%, Heerenveen 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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