Heerenveen 2-1 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 22 Sep 2024

Heerenveen
2-1 HT 1-1
Groningen
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Heerenveen vs Groningen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
13%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.18
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.22
X/2
13%
6.19
X/X
10%
5.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.85
2/2
16%
4.04
2/X
11%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v Groningen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 37%
-14% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.43/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.33
-12% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
18.9 Crosses 17.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Heerenveen vs Groningen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Groningen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.53 xG 1.06
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
299 Passes 302
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.03.2023 Groningen Groningen 0-2 HT 0-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
22.01.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
10.04.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
12.09.2021 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.04.2021 Groningen Groningen 0-2 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
21.02.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 1-0 Groningen Groningen HOL

Heerenveen 2-1 Groningen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
2-1
AWAY Groningen
1.72 xG 0.34
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
477 Passes 210
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen squeezed past Groningen 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Heerenveen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 66% of the ball to Groningen's 34%, shots finished 20-2, expected goals 1.72 to 0.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Heerenveen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heerenveen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Heerenveen and 0.67 for Groningen.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Groningen?

Heerenveen 2-1 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 37%, draw 27%, Groningen 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
22 Sep 2024
15:30 Almere City vs Twente Analysis →
15:30 Feyenoord vs NAC Breda Analysis →
17:45 Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven Analysis →