Fortuna Sittard 1-3 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
9.57
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
57%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.63
Over 2.5
65%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.9
No
43%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.25
2-3 Goals
36%
2.1
4-5 Goals
30%
2.54
6+ Goals
17%
5.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
18.7
1/2
7%
21.85
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
26.0
X/1
5%
25.5
X/2
25%
3.5
X/X
7%
10.05
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.36
2/X
5%
27.0
Value flag · 1/X at 26.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
8%
+13.6pp
21%
Draw
15%
+6.4pp
57%
Away Win
77%
-20.0pp
35%
Under 2.5
34%
+0.9pp
65%
Over 2.5
66%
-0.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
49%
+8.3pp
43%
BTTS No
51%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 81%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
0.97/2.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.70/0.83
-7% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -5%
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
243 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 461 · 83%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 40.6
16.0 Crosses 21.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0W-2D-4L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.77 xG 2.69
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 10
197 Passes 560
66% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 47
10 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.05.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
21.10.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
14.05.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.01.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
20.03.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-0 HT 3-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.12.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-3
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.60 xG 1.85
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
165 Passes 560
67% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 39
11 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 28% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 72%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.60 to 1.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?

Fortuna Sittard 1-3 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 22%, draw 21%, PSV Eindhoven 57%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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