Fortuna Sittard 1-1 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 12 May 2024

Fortuna Sittard
1-1 HT 1-0
PSV Eindhoven
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
6.35
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
53%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.89
Over 2.5
55%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.77
2-3 Goals
38%
2.16
4-5 Goals
29%
2.49
6+ Goals
12%
5.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
12.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
19.4
1/X
4%
20.25
X/1
10%
18.2
X/2
13%
3.72
X/X
13%
8.96
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.51
2/X
6%
20.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.4 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
13%
+10.6pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.7pp
53%
Away Win
70%
-17.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
31%
+13.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
69%
-13.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 75%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
0.96/2.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.59/0.86
-7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +7%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
256 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 480 · 84%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.3
16.6 Crosses 19.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3

Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.67 xG 2.91
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 10
236 Passes 547
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 48
10 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.10.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
14.05.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.01.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
20.03.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-0 HT 3-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.12.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOK
07.11.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-4 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL

Fortuna Sittard 1-1 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-1
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.03 xG 1.33
23% Ball Possession 77%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
112 Passes 578
58% Pass Accuracy 89%
26 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was PSV Eindhoven at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 23% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 77%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.03 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 3.00 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?

Fortuna Sittard 1-1 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 23%, draw 24%, PSV Eindhoven 53%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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